In an article on the Children’s Health Defense Website, Dr. Toby Rogers writes:
Let’s examine 3 scenarios: lower bound, mid-range, and upper bound. Following the Brenner (1976) model, these figures all reflect the estimated cumulative impact of an increase in unemployment on mortality over a five-year lag period.
Lower bound. If the unemployment rate increases by 5 points as a result of the various lockdowns, then 294,170 additional lives will be lost, not from coronavirus, but from deaths of despair.
Mid-range. If the unemployment rate increases by 16.5 points (as predicted by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin), then 970,761 additional lives will be lost to deaths of despair.
Upper bound. And if the unemployment rate increases by 10-fold — which is what we are already seeing in several states — then 1,853,271 lives will be lost to deaths of despair from government orders to lock down, shut down, and shelter in place.
The magnitude of the association between unemployment and mortality is higher for men than women and higher in early career and middle career workers than older workers (Roelfs et al., 2011, p. 849). It seems reasonable to assume that the coronavirus economic crash will also disproportionately impact the poor and working classes who lack sizable financial reserves.
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/will-deaths-of-despair-outpace-deaths-from-coronavirus/